Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Cut and pasted from main blog.

"Have been feeling abit depressed of late due to all my funds being locked up in stocks. Really plan to get out of most of them once they are back in the green, and focus on just a few good ones to hold, while trading the others. Learned a lot along the way, about TA, about various trading, risk management plans, about managing emotions, and more importantly, about the fact that I really need to prioritise time for family over trading etc. My daily schedule is still a mess, being in a job just for the sake of dragging out the days to get more $$, wanting to spend more time with the boys and enjoy their growing up years (or days rather), wanting to take them out to more fun stuff, and managing without maid, while still trying to pump for baby etc. So yeah, I've decided to hold off on trading and stocks for abit and trying even harder not to beat myself up for not unloading many of my winning stocks and funds on 25 Jan, that fateful day when market peaked the very first time of my life involved in stocks. Oh well, have to keep telling myself not to dwell on past failures and move on to make better use of the opportunities to be had. Just 2 years into stock investing and a few months into more active trading only. I'll make it back in the long time to come."

I should blog about my Fx experience, swinging from $20k win to $21k loss in a few weeks. There were the obvious signs. I got emotionally attached and ignored them. In the end, missed so many nights of sleep, gained bit of experience and bit net loss after losing all my wins. Sad. Still suffering from PTSD. Right now that I'm still working (to make back some money), and need to be occupied with kids, and with stocks all down and capital locked up, I shall try to be zen and use this time to study. People make, people lose. Those who make big, might sometimes lose big. I'm still good. I'll learn and make it all back with time and experience. Right now, shall spend more time with the boys while they are still young and need me, and get enough rest in the hectic days instead of stressing out too much. Hugz to my family for their unconditional love and support. I'll work hard for you all! =)

Thursday, May 3, 2018

Big reversals!

With volatility still high and stocks moving up and down erratically, I have stayed off trading for the past few weeks after some reckless losses. Yesterday, I suddenly had the itch to check out Ezion and Venture, both of which have been suffering multiple days of blood baths. Eagerly bought Ezion at $0.122 when it appeared to be moving up upon opening, but throughout the day, it kept drifting down fast and furious, closing at $0.109. Fortunately I had held back on the urge to average down at 0.110, and I congratulated myself as I cancelled the order when the trend downwards seemed still strong.

This morning, it drifted further to $0.104, which was rather unnerving, and as it drifted further down close to $0.100, my heart sank and I started to fear the worst, fanned by comments that price will soon drift down to $0.08 or $0.05, or worse, go through consolidation like Noble. When it finally hovered for a looong time at $0.101 and even $0.100, I contemplated adding to average down as more and more people came in to buy while there was even more talk of how this is a dead junk stock. But I got scared and thought I'll wait at an even lower price...

My breakeven price of $0.122 seemed further and further away and I went out for lunch with dd with a heavy heart, thinking of the $12k that will be locked up in the stock instead of being deployable for Keppel or DBS when they fall further (they were at $8.05 and $28.94 respectively). The trends stayed that way throughout the day till about 2.30pm. Within 1.5 hours from 3-4.30pm after we got home, the tides had turned. Keppel moved up a tad to $8.14. DBS to $29.05 then $29.20. And Ezion? It suddenly shot up to $0.114-$0.115, stalled and corrected briefly to $0.112, then back up to $0.118, then $0.123 at some point! OMG! I contemplated cutting loss, but still have the hope that it'll at least move up to $0.128-$0.130... Is it greed? I wonder. At that point, I super regretted not buying at $0.101 when I was staring at it. If I had and it had reached $0.113 or so, I might have offloaded at cost price plus commission. Now, I'm at a slight loss of $250 or so from $2250. If only I had not seen yesterday but today instead....

Same thing for Venture. Saw it yesterday at $20.90. Luckily held my horses and witnessed it tumbling to $20.50 then $19.50 then rebounding to $19.80, then falling back. The downward momentum made me thank my lucky stars for not going in. And I decided I will only enter at $18.60 or $17.50. This morning, the opportunity came when the stock further tumbled to $18.50. Was sooo tempted to buy but didn't. And again, felt happy cos though it went up to $18.80, it fell back and hovered around $18.50 for a while. A long while. I decided not to follow it anymore for the next few hours and guess what....Again at 3pm plus, I happened to glance at the price and saw that it had risen to $19.20! Then $19.30, $19.40, corrected back to $19.20...stayed around $19.2 0-$19.40, then suddenly shooting up to $19.70 and even hit $20 before trading in the range of $19.60-$19.80.

Argh!! Can you imagine, 2 days worth of staring at the stock market without having done any work, and in the end, where I could've made $2-3K under best case scenarios or $300-400 under more realistic scenarios, I made nothing. =(

Conclusion: Lessons are good to learn, but not OVERlearn. There's lots to make in the stock market, so there's hope yet if I keep learning and honing my trading and investment skills, but I had better be patient and keep my ammo for the upcoming big drop for longer-term reversal. I'm wondering how much I should read the forums and also Donovan Norfolk Ang's blog, which sounds very confident and is singing a different tune from most other analysts....=/

If only I had focused on work yesterday morning, looked at stocks in the afternoon, then looked today, took up positions in Venture, DBS and Ezion, then continued with work and checked back close to closing today, I would've made a decent profit! Argh! Guess I just need more experience and learn to chuck aside emotions for ration moving forward! No more emotional baggage but more experience bah! Jiayou! Must work hard for our house!

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Lessons for 2018

Haven't been doing great on stocks....On hindsight, I'm making all the mistakes I know not to do. But can't help doing...Chasing highs, not taking profits, not cutting loss, getting too emotionally involved, buy when others are hopeful (but later than everybody else), sell when everyone is fearful (but later than everybody else). Hah! I spot a stock maybe at an ok time when it's on the uptrend, then I hesitate and enter when it's a higher. Usually I make a small profit but I kept comparing with those who've made more and keep holding out for higher....until profits turn to losses. Then I try to ride it out despite naysayers. And then the losses roll until finally, I let go at an even lower price.

That's not the end. I mourn over the previous loss as I look elsewhere to make it back. Then I repeat the same mistake, only this time, aggravated by the desire to make even more to even out the first loss, the potential gain that could've been and history repeats.

So now, I tell myself...I'll NOT chase highs. I'll NOT think of history. Cos a stock's movement is the present. It doesn't care about my history (but of cos!). And a stock's movement is only temporary. Look for a reasonable target price, study the volume, make a decision to cash out, and go celebrate a profit that could have, but didn't turn into a loss! So I guess it's still about looking back on history, but from a different angle. =) Every win, no matter how small, is a win! Better to win than lose! And slow and steady small wins will eventually roll into larger wins! Finally also, there's always an opportunity cost to holding what started out as a trade. So don't hold a non blue-chip or a risky stock. Can always cash out with small profit (or loss if that's a mistake) and put the money in something else to make it back.

With that, I *try* to start afresh. It won't be easy, and I won't want to write off my losses. But I shall still celebrate my wins as a way to slowly negate the losses, and apply the lessons learned to a longer investing and trading future ahead of me! Goals for 2018 - cash out as much as I can once targets are hit for my stocks, and wait for the next opportunity to hoot big when the time comes! =) Always remember, investing is NOT a sprint, it's a marathon. Make short term trading wins with small volatile stocks while waiting for the right price to invest in good blue chips... that's my strategy. Jiayou! Ganbatte! =)