Thursday, May 3, 2018

Big reversals!

With volatility still high and stocks moving up and down erratically, I have stayed off trading for the past few weeks after some reckless losses. Yesterday, I suddenly had the itch to check out Ezion and Venture, both of which have been suffering multiple days of blood baths. Eagerly bought Ezion at $0.122 when it appeared to be moving up upon opening, but throughout the day, it kept drifting down fast and furious, closing at $0.109. Fortunately I had held back on the urge to average down at 0.110, and I congratulated myself as I cancelled the order when the trend downwards seemed still strong.

This morning, it drifted further to $0.104, which was rather unnerving, and as it drifted further down close to $0.100, my heart sank and I started to fear the worst, fanned by comments that price will soon drift down to $0.08 or $0.05, or worse, go through consolidation like Noble. When it finally hovered for a looong time at $0.101 and even $0.100, I contemplated adding to average down as more and more people came in to buy while there was even more talk of how this is a dead junk stock. But I got scared and thought I'll wait at an even lower price...

My breakeven price of $0.122 seemed further and further away and I went out for lunch with dd with a heavy heart, thinking of the $12k that will be locked up in the stock instead of being deployable for Keppel or DBS when they fall further (they were at $8.05 and $28.94 respectively). The trends stayed that way throughout the day till about 2.30pm. Within 1.5 hours from 3-4.30pm after we got home, the tides had turned. Keppel moved up a tad to $8.14. DBS to $29.05 then $29.20. And Ezion? It suddenly shot up to $0.114-$0.115, stalled and corrected briefly to $0.112, then back up to $0.118, then $0.123 at some point! OMG! I contemplated cutting loss, but still have the hope that it'll at least move up to $0.128-$0.130... Is it greed? I wonder. At that point, I super regretted not buying at $0.101 when I was staring at it. If I had and it had reached $0.113 or so, I might have offloaded at cost price plus commission. Now, I'm at a slight loss of $250 or so from $2250. If only I had not seen yesterday but today instead....

Same thing for Venture. Saw it yesterday at $20.90. Luckily held my horses and witnessed it tumbling to $20.50 then $19.50 then rebounding to $19.80, then falling back. The downward momentum made me thank my lucky stars for not going in. And I decided I will only enter at $18.60 or $17.50. This morning, the opportunity came when the stock further tumbled to $18.50. Was sooo tempted to buy but didn't. And again, felt happy cos though it went up to $18.80, it fell back and hovered around $18.50 for a while. A long while. I decided not to follow it anymore for the next few hours and guess what....Again at 3pm plus, I happened to glance at the price and saw that it had risen to $19.20! Then $19.30, $19.40, corrected back to $19.20...stayed around $19.2 0-$19.40, then suddenly shooting up to $19.70 and even hit $20 before trading in the range of $19.60-$19.80.

Argh!! Can you imagine, 2 days worth of staring at the stock market without having done any work, and in the end, where I could've made $2-3K under best case scenarios or $300-400 under more realistic scenarios, I made nothing. =(

Conclusion: Lessons are good to learn, but not OVERlearn. There's lots to make in the stock market, so there's hope yet if I keep learning and honing my trading and investment skills, but I had better be patient and keep my ammo for the upcoming big drop for longer-term reversal. I'm wondering how much I should read the forums and also Donovan Norfolk Ang's blog, which sounds very confident and is singing a different tune from most other analysts....=/

If only I had focused on work yesterday morning, looked at stocks in the afternoon, then looked today, took up positions in Venture, DBS and Ezion, then continued with work and checked back close to closing today, I would've made a decent profit! Argh! Guess I just need more experience and learn to chuck aside emotions for ration moving forward! No more emotional baggage but more experience bah! Jiayou! Must work hard for our house!

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